This article was originally published by CSIS, on December 4, 2024 and is hereby reproduced by iMEdD with permission. Any reprint permissions are subject to the original publisher. Read the original article here.
President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law plunged South Korea into an unprecedented political crisis. He averted a constitutional crisis by lifting the martial law decree just six hours after it took effect, but the political fallout was immediate as six opposition parties submitted an impeachment motion against him today.
Yoon’s political survival appears to hinge largely on the support of his own People Power Party (PPP). For the impeachment to pass, it requires a two-thirds majority in the 300-member National Assembly, meaning that at least 8 of 108 lawmakers from the ruling PPP would need to support it. Should the motion succeed, the Constitutional Court would then decide whether Yoon’s impeachment is valid. It remains unclear whether the PPP will come around to defend Yoon and prevent the impeachment of another conservative president.
Even if they wish to support him, the PPP faces a dilemma: how to justify Yoon’s invocation of martial law—intended for wartime or similar national emergencies—to address what he called “unscrupulous acts of legislative and budgetary manipulation that are paralyzing the functions of the state.” Opposition parties have already condemned Yoon’s action as “unconstitutional and unlawful.” This question will heavily weigh on PPP lawmakers as the impeachment bill comes to a vote in the next two days.
Yoon’s declaration of martial law has reignited deep-seated fears among South Koreans of a return to military dictatorship. This is a significant setback for Yoon himself, putting his presidency at serious risk, tarnishing his reputation as a champion of freedom and democracy, and undermining his efforts to position South Korea as a leader within the global democratic alliance.
The potential impeachment of another South Korean president will have far-reaching consequences, particularly during a time of heightened uncertainty. This political instability comes amid escalating tensions with North Korea and its growing strategic alliance with Russia, as well as a leadership transition in the United States. With the recent political leadership change in Japan and the reelection of Donald Trump in the United States, Yoon was uniquely positioned to uphold the Camp David spirit. But, by jeopardizing his presidency, Yoon has introduced uncertainty into the future of trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan. Even if an interim president steps in following Yoon’s impeachment, few countries will seriously engage South Korea until a new government is in place. This lost time will come at a steep cost to South Korea.
South Korea has long been regarded as a shining example of democracy in Asia. The peaceful resolution of yesterday’s crisis showed once again the maturity and resilience of its democratic institutions. However, the looming prospect of another presidential impeachment highlights a troubling lack of political leadership and bipartisanship, as well as the deep political polarization entrenched within South Korea’s democracy. A confluence of these elements poses a significant risk to the country’s future stability and governance.
Ellen Kim is senior fellow of the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
