Doreen Horschig, PhD, is a fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Although only one country possesses nuclear weapons in the Middle East, the issue has long shaped regional dynamics. Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, sought nuclear weapons but saw its facilities bombed by Israel in 1981 and later dismantled after the 1991 Gulf War. Syria pursued a covert nuclear program with North Korean assistance, but Israel destroyed its suspected reactor in the 2007 airstrike known as Operation Orchard. Libya abandoned its nuclear ambitions in 2003, while Arab states, led by Egypt, have long advocated for a Middle East free of nuclear weapons—an effort repeatedly blocked by Israel’s ambiguity regarding its nuclear program.
Currently, Israel and Iran are the region’s primary nuclear players. Israel is a nuclear-armed state, while Iran is moving closer to weaponization. Since 1979, these two countries have maintained a hostile relationship, and the effects of this rivalry have spilled over into broader regional security dynamics, intensified by the recent war in Gaza, the fall of Syria’s Assad regime, and Iran’s military support for Russia.
How the region responds to Iran’s next moves, whether through diplomacy, threat of violence, or direct military confrontation, will shape the Middle East’s security landscape over the next few years. The risk of nuclear proliferation, military escalation, and shifting alliances threatens to destabilize an already fragile balance of power.
Military Expenditure in the Middle East: Who spends more?
Turkey and Israel increased their military expenditure more in 2023 than in 2022. A large percentage of GDP is spent on military expenditure for the economically struggling Lebanon.
Israeli Nuclear Ambiguity
Israel is estimated to possess at least 90 nuclear warheads and fissile material for about 200-400 more. It follows a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying possession of nuclear weapons. Israel’s repeated policy statement is that “Israel will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East.” Israel is also believed to have a nuclear triad—three delivery platforms for its nuclear weapons: F-15 and F-16 fighters, Dolphin-class submarines, and the Jericho series of intermediate to intercontinental range ballistic missiles.
Much of the Middle East views Israel’s nuclear weapons program as a major source of tension and imbalance. Arab states, especially Egypt, have pushed for a nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) for decades, arguing that Israel’s arsenal gives it an unfair strategic advantage and pressures other countries to build up their own military capabilities. Iran proposed the NWFZ in 1974, but progress has been significantly hampered by regional crises and a lack of consensus on the specifics of such an agreement. Iran sees Israeli nuclear weapons as a direct threat and justification for its own nuclear ambitions, while Gulf states like Saudi Arabia worry about both Israel’s weapons and Iran’s potential to develop them. Israel’s refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), an international agreement aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting disarmament, and encouraging peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and its policy of nuclear ambiguity further fuel mistrust, complicating efforts to build a regional security framework.
Iranian Nuclear Aspirations
Iran is considered a threshold nuclear state, possessing the capacity to build nuclear weapons without yet deciding to weaponize its program. This has raised increasing concerns in recent years. Since the early 2000s, Iran has been enriching uranium, increasing the concentration of the fissile isotope uranium-235. Low-enriched uranium (LEU) is typically used in nuclear reactors, while highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is suitable for nuclear weapons, is used in very few civilian applications. Uranium enriched to 90% is considered weapons-grade. In a December 2024 report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) noted that Iran is producing approximately 9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% per month. The IAEA monitors Iran’s nuclear program to ensure compliance with safeguards but has reported violations. It is generally agreed that Iran now has the infrastructure and expertise to produce HEU. However, it has not yet mastered all necessary technologies.
Alongside its nuclear advancements, Iran has the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. Iran is also capable of developing long-range missiles, including Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. If Iran moves forward with weaponization, it is likely to use its Sajjil medium-range missiles, which require less preparation due to their solid fuel. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. The agreement placed strict limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment, reduced its stockpile of nuclear material, and allowed international inspections to ensure compliance. However, the JCPOA collapsed when the Trump administration withdrew in 2018, arguing that the agreement was insufficient and did not address Iran’s missile program or regional activities. In response, Iran gradually abandoned the deal’s restrictions, ramping up uranium enrichment and pushing the region closer to a nuclear crisis.
Iran’s nuclear objectives remain unclear. While Iran remains a member of the NPT and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons, some Iranian officials have voiced support for obtaining them. Until August 2024, U.S. intelligence reports stated that Iran was not pursuing activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device. . However, more recent assessments indicate that Iran is seemingly positioning itself to be able to produce a nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so, signaling a shift in its nuclear strategy.
An area that changes through the barrel of a gun
Dr Marina Eleftheriadou, scientific advisor for the dossier “The Armories of the Middle East,” analyzes the region’s geopolitical significance, its complexities, and the ever-growing need for research and study.
A Delicate Balance in the Region
Israel and the United States have repeatedly stated their commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and are prepared to use all means necessary to ensure that outcome. Both countries have employed a range of strategies to halt or delay Iran’s nuclear program. While Washington had largely worked with European powers to find a diplomatic solution, the Trump administration initiated a “maximum pressure” campaign, intensifying sanctions after exiting the JCPOA. Meanwhile, Israel has deployed preventive counterproliferation measures, including the assassination of key Iranian nuclear scientists, sabotage of and airstrikes on nuclear facilities, and cyberattacks on uranium-enriching centrifuges. Notably, the Stuxnet cyberattack, discovered in 2009, destroyed numerous centrifuges. In 2021, an explosion occurred at Iran’s Natanz enrichment site after Israel supplied Iran with sabotaged centrifuges. In October 2024, Israel struck Taleghan 2, a suspected site for the production of a nuclear weapon’s initiation system. However, none of these efforts have permanently halted Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear developments, Israel’s repeated attacks, and extensive sanctions contribute to regional instability, exacerbating security dilemmas, intensifying rivalries, and undermining trust between states. Iran’s advancing nuclear program has fueled existential fears in Israel and among its neighbors, prompting some countries, like Saudi Arabia, to consider pursuing their own nuclear weapons programs if Iran develops one. This heightened risk of proliferation could extend beyond Saudi Arabia, leading countries like Egypt and Turkey to reconsider their nonproliferation positions. The absence of a regional arms control framework or confidence-building measures has left the Middle East vulnerable to miscalculation and escalation, further destabilizing an already volatile region marked by sectarian divides, proxy conflicts, and external interventions.
The October 2023 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza have complicated efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region. Iran has strengthened its ties with Russia through military transfers, while normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel were suspended. The Iran–Israel proxy conflict has spread to Syria and Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria has fallen. As deterrence pillars collapse for Iran, nuclear deterrence may become more appealing, and the country has started reconsidering its nuclear option.
It remains unclear how Israel, the United States, and Europe will respond to Iran’s advancing nuclear program. A maximum pressure campaign could push Iran further into Russia’s orbit and towards nuclear weapons, while delicate diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons are fraught with difficulty given the current tensions.
Read all articles and analyses of the Special Report: “Armories of the Middle East” here.
This article was first published on Feb. 22 by the weekend edition of the newspaper “TA NEA”.
