On April 1, 2024, an airstrike demolished the Iranian embassy in Damascus, claiming the lives of 12 individuals, including senior Tehran military officials. Iran attributes the strike to Israel and demands retribution. The WSJ reported on Thursday (4/11) that an Iranian attack is expected on Israel “in next two days”.
This incident marks an escalation in an ongoing but largely concealed conflict in the Middle East. Who are its primary “players,” and what is the connection to the war in Gaza? How likely is it that the conflict will spread throughout the Middle East? “The expansion of the conflict has already happened,” Sotiris Roussos, Professor of International Relations and Religion in the Middle East at the University of Peloponnese, says to iMEdD.
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What role does Iran play?
Tehran had announced the previous period its reluctance to directly involve itself in a regional conflict. According to an analysis by the International Crisis Group, Iran is striving to strike a balance between exerting indirect pressure on its adversaries through allied armed groups and avoiding actions that could provoke direct involvement in the conflict. Nevertheless, developments are rapid. The WSJ reported on Thursday (11/4) that Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran “in the next few days”. The publication, however, says that no final decision has been made, as attack scenarios are being discussed.
Who are the key players in the Midde East?
Israel counts the US as its primare regional ally. Iran wields influence over a network of paramilitary groups and militias across several Middle Eastern nations. The so-called “Axis of Resistance,” includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Shiite armed factions in Syria and Iraq, and Palestinian Hamas. “The idea that these actors are mere puppets of Tehran oversimplifies the complex relationship between Iran and these organisations,” Sotiris Roussos, Professor of International Relations and Religion in the Middle East at the University of Peloponnese, says to iMEdD.
What role does the US play?
A series of attacks by the so-called “Axis of Resistance” prompted increased U.S. involvement in the region, despite Washington’s avowals to steer clear of active engagement in Middle Eastern conflicts. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a surge in U.S. strikes commenced on February 2, 2024. February witnessing a 70% increase in U.S. strikes compared to the previous month. Conversely, more than 200 attacks or attempted attacks on U.S. forces or allies across the Middle East were reported during this period.
What more does Gaza war spark?
Since October 8, following the Hamas attacks on Israel, nearly daily clashes have erupted between Hezbollah and Israeli forces along the Lebanese border. Hamas has vowed to continue its assaults until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel has been conducting airstrikes along the border and beyond. On February 25, it struck Lebanese territories far from the border, marking the first such incident since 2006. In the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the Houthis are targeting merchant and warships in support of Palestine. Between October 19 and March 28, an estimated 68 ship attacks occurred in the region. Iraqi armed groups, reportedly supported by Iran, have recently launched assaults on U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for the Gaza conflict, with one group claiming responsibility for a drone hit that killed three U.S. soldiers on January 28.
At this moment the expansion of the conflict has already happened
Sotiris Roussos, Professor of International Relations and Religion in the Middle East at the University of Peloponnese
Will the war spread to the Middle East?
Regardless of all the above, the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus is anticipated to heighten tensions across the Middle East and increase the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict in Gaza, with Tehran directly involved. “At this moment the expansion of the conflict has already happened,” professor Roussos says. “This attack (meaning the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus) is likely to be also a prelude to a general attack by Israel against Hezbollah similar to the one against Hamas after the end of the Gaza offensive.” he adds. At the same time, a favourable climate for this seems to be building up inside Israel as well. “Israeli right-wing think-tanks have recently been preparing for such an eventuality, arguing that the geopolitical situation is favourable for a clearance of all threats”.
Read all the Explainer texts of the series “The 10 Crises of 2024” here.
