The elections month started with the prime minister’s strategic programmatic, proclamatory discourse, the strengthening of the fundamental issues addressed by each political leader, a slight increase in the discourse formats and absence of a typical populist discourse strategy.
Detecting polarization in the pre-election political discourse in Greece
Differentiating competition, division and polarisation in political discourse.
Populism in pre-election political discourse in Greece
Populism is not equivalent to politicians’ falsehoods, promises, or deceitfulness. It is not synonymous with demagoguery, propaganda, or manipulation.
The election month kicked off with the International Workers’ Day, which was 20 days prior to the ballot box opening. On that day, the leaders of the two major political parties opted to give speeches – the prime minister delivered his in Kifissia, while the leader of the opposition spoke in Drapetsona. In this article, we will examine how the speeches were delivered and how the political discourse of the six parliamentary party leaders developed during the first week of May.
Analyzing the sentiment conveyed through the speeches, it is apparent that the government’s speeches were predominantly positive, whereas the opposition’s speeches were generally neutral or negative. The prime minister’s speeches during this period were all on the positive end of the spectrum. Meanwhile, the speeches of Alexis Tsipras and Nikos Androulakis ranged from neutral to positive, with the exception of their speeches during events organized by their parties to present their agenda, which were more positive in tone. In contrast, the leaders of the three smaller parties had speeches that tended to convey a more negative sentiment. Specifically, Yanis Varoufakis’ speeches fell somewhere between neutral and negative sentiment, while Dimitris Koutsoumpas’ and Kyriakos Velopoulos’ speeches fell within the negative spectrum. The only difference from April was a slight shift towards a more negative tone in Dimitris Koutsoumpas’ speeches, which could indicate an escalation in his criticism.
Slight escalation in the speeches of Androulakis, Koutsoumpas, Velopoulos
In our previous analysis, we pointed out that no discourse could be deemed predominantly polarizing or characteristically populist. While this has not fundamentally changed in the first week of May, we have identified some variations, particularly in the polarization indicator, which we will discuss below. There has been a slight decrease in instances of polarization in Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ speech. On the opposition side, there is either no change from April or a slight increase, especially from May 4th onwards. It is worth noting the case of Alexis Tsipras, whose speeches in the first three days of the month were less polarizing than earlier in the election period, with the discourse returning to mostly moderate polarization from May 4th onwards. However, it should be mentioned that the first days included the May Day event and the event for the presentation of the parties’ agendas, which differ from a typical election speech.
The levels of polarization in Yanis Varoufakis’ speech remained generally the same as in the previous reporting period, while there was a slight escalation in the speeches of Nikos Androulakis, Dimitris Koutsoumpas, and Kyriakos Velopoulos. This escalation can be seen through either a higher frequency or greater intensity of instances of polarization. It is important to note that this particular type of polarization aims to set apart the party of the political leader in question from other competing parties, including the two dominant ones. It is not the typical form of polarization that only occurs between the two major parties.
The trope of “the many” mentioned by Alexis Tsipras
With regards to the populism index, no significant differences are observed. As expected, Kyriakos Mitsotakis did not display any notable instances of populist discourse. In the case of Alexis Tsipras, although some instances of populist discourse can still be found in his speeches, they are limited in number. Recently, he has started using the trope of ‘the many’, but a coherent populist speech strategy cannot be identified at this time. The other two left-wing parties, the Communist Party (KKE) and MERA25, do not appear to have a dominant populist strategy, but the instances of populist discourse seem to be slightly more frequent than in April. However, Nikos Androulakis’ speech includes clear anti-populist references and the use of the adjective “populist” as a negative trait of political opponents.
The Prime Minister focuses on economy, labor and health; Alexis Tsipras’ speech covers a range of topics
As we get closer to the elections and the parties present their programs, the study of the topics covered by each political leader becomes of greater interest. It is noteworthy that most political leaders have made the elections themselves one of their main topics in their speeches, presumably to mobilize voters by highlighting the stakes of the upcoming ballot box. The only political leaders who did not focus on elections as a main topic in any of their speeches were Dimitris Koutsoumpas and Yanis Varoufakis. Let’s take a closer look below at the rest of the topics that completed the main agenda of the political leaders in their speeches during the first week of May.
The prime minister focused on three issues, which he had been emphasizing since the beginning of the election period: economy, labor, and health. Alexis Tsipras’ speech covers a range of topics, with a particular emphasis on the economy and labor. Additionally, he touches on issues such as transparency, corruption, infrastructure, energy, and housing when appropriate, depending on the location of the speech. For instance, the topic of energy was highlighted during the speech in Kozani, whereas in the May Day speech, labor was the dominant topic.
Nikos Androulakis’ speeches lack a consistent set of key topics. Agricultural policy and energy are the two issues that appear most frequently, but again, this choice seems to be directly linked to the places the leader of PASOK-KINAL visits, such as Ilia, Messinia and Kozani. Similarly, Dimitris Koutsoumpas also presents a varied range of topics in his speeches. In the first week of May, key issues identified in the speech of the General Secretary of the Greek Communist Party (KKE) included health, foreign policy, democracy, economy, and privatization. Notably, Dimitris Koutsoumpas delivered a thematic speech on popular housing in Gazi. Kyriakos Velopoulos focused on the economy, energy, and the upcoming elections in his speeches, while Yanis Varoufakis continued to emphasize the economy and the debt as his core issues, which was also observed in April. In fact, he was the only political leader who gave significant attention to the debt issue last month. This week, the debt was also a main topic in speeches delivered by Nikos Androulakis and Dimitris Koutsoumpas. Along with the economy and the debt, Yanis Varoufakis also addressed complementary issues such as labor, energy, and privatization.
It appears that the topics of corruption, transparency, and accountability, which are primarily (but not exclusively) associated with the wiretapping scandal, are becoming less prominent, given how they were only identified as key topics in two speeches of Alexis Tsipras and one speech of Nikos Androulakis. It is also noteworthy that agricultural policy has emerged as an alternative key issue in the speeches of Androulakis, Koutsoumpas, and Velopoulos, while housing has been identified as a central topic in the speeches of Tsipras, Koutsoumpas, and Varoufakis.
Androulakis consistently mentions farmers
In concluding this analysis, we will attempt to glean more insights about the political discourse by examining the mentions of individuals, institutions, and organizations that were made by the leaders in their speeches. One notable observation is that the frequency of the leader of the opposition’s direct reference to Kyriakos Mitsotakis is higher than that of the prime minister’s reference to Alexis Tsipras. In fact, Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ references to Alexis Tsipras have declined even further compared to April. Interestingly, though, the prime minister has started to mention Yanis Varoufakis in his speeches. Conversely, Nikos Androulakis frequently alludes to the leaders of the country’s two major political parties. He also consistently refers to the Recovery Fund, mentions farmers as a special social group that requires attention and frequently cites Andreas Papandreou, the founder of PASOK, in his speeches.
The prime minister emphasizes the value of progress and directs his speech towards workers, pensioners, and professional groups like doctors and the armed forces. Alexis Tsipras, on the other hand, addresses democratic citizens, progressive forces, young people, workers, and the middle class, while Dimitris Koutsoumpas addresses workers and young people. Only Dimiris Koutsoumpas and Yanis Varoufakis touched on topics related to NATO’s role and the impact of short-term rentals like AirBnB on the housing issue. Additionally, as previously noted, Varoufakis frequently mentions Greek businessmen by name in his speeches.
In concluding this analysis, we will attempt to glean more insights about the political discourse by examining the mentions of individuals, institutions, and organizations that were made by the leaders in their speeches. One notable observation is that the frequency of the leader of the opposition’s direct reference to Kyriakos Mitsotakis is higher than that of the prime minister’s reference to Alexis Tsipras. In fact, Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ references to Alexis Tsipras have declined even further compared to April. Interestingly, though, the prime minister has started to mention Yanis Varoufakis in his speeches. Conversely, Nikos Androulakis frequently alludes to the leaders of the country’s two major political parties. He also consistently refers to the Recovery Fund, mentions farmers as a special social group that requires attention and frequently cites Andreas Papandreou, the founder of PASOK, in his speeches.
The prime minister emphasizes the value of progress and directs his speech towards workers, pensioners, and professional groups like doctors and the armed forces. Alexis Tsipras, on the other hand, addresses democratic citizens, progressive forces, young people, workers, and the middle class, while Dimitris Koutsoumpas addresses workers and young people. Only Dimiris Koutsoumpas and Yanis Varoufakis touched on topics related to NATO’s role and the impact of short-term rentals like AirBnB on the housing issue. Additionally, as previously noted, Varoufakis frequently mentions Greek businessmen by name in his speeches.
In conclusion, our analysis of the data from the first week of May indicates that there have not been any significant changes in the political discourse compared to the initial days of the election period. However, there are indications that the parties are gearing up for the upcoming election season. These include: (a) the prime minister’s strategic programmatic, proclamatory discourse; (b) the strengthening or broadening of the fundamental issues addressed by each political leader; (c) a slight increase in the discourse formats that aim to highlight the differences between the parties, whether between the two major parties or between the smaller parties and the “systemic” parties as perceived by each; and (d) the absence of a typical populist discourse strategy.
Translation: Anatoli Stavroulopoulou
